ASSESSING THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STOCK MARKET UNDER UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT

The article is devoted to development methods and models for the study and evaluation the current state of the stock market. For example, the stock market in the Russian Federation. In the stock market, it is very difficult to find the models to measure the securities prices changes, therefore the assessment problem the state of the stock market and forecast of its development are usually solved under conditions of incomplete information. This article presents the basic assessments such as indexes, the current volume of transactions, the volatility, capitalization of the stock market and oil prices. We explained the purpose of them and suggested states for the stock market: stable, transition, growth, unstable and stagnation. These proposed states of the stock market as the most corresponding to the real state of market. In this article we used model to assess the state of the stock market. This model allows us to classify the possible states of the stock market on the basis of measuring the assessment as mentioned above. Depending on the basic sets of the values of assessment the expert gives the linguistic variables, their term-sets and membership functions of fuzzy sets. The experts give set of the standard situations of the stock market. The model contains in its structure rules for assessing the current state of the stock market. The situations assessment model compares between the actual situations with the standard situations and gives inference about the state of the stock market at current time. To perform the research we designed program in an environment Matlab and gave an example of assessing the current state of the stock market.